P5a: jc reliability/validity metric battery (Pearson / Spearman / Cronbach α / ICC)

.claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md

@@ -1,3 +1,12 @@
+## 2026-07-17 — E-JC-IS-NOT-A-METRIC-BATTERY-1 — `jc` was a FORMAL-SCAFFOLD pillar-prover, NOT a callable reliability/validity battery; the four D-TRI measurement gates had nothing to call (plateau P5a)
+
+**Status:** SHIPPED (plateau P5a; `crates/jc/src/reliability.rs`, 12 tests + 3 doctests green). Corrects the assumption (in the triangle plan §4/§6 and the operator brief "measure with lance-graph/crates/JC ICC Pearson Cronbach alpha spearman") that jc already exposes these.
+
+- **The finding:** `jc` is ten pillar-provers (`substrate`/`weyl`/`jirak`/`pearl`/`koestenberger`/`dueker_zoubouloglou`/`ewa_sandwich`/`pflug`/`hambly_lyons` + probes), each a `prove() -> PillarResult`. There was **no callable ICC / Pearson / Cronbach-α / Spearman** — only a private `spearman_rho` on *rankings* inside `probe_p1_gamma_phase.rs`, and a separately hand-rolled `spearman_rho` in the stockfish-rs chess probe. So D-TRI-2 (12-family ↔ 12-step agreement), D-TRI-4 (chess↔thinking transfer) and D-TRI-5 (emulation vs resonance) all named a battery that did not exist as an API.
+- **The fix:** `jc::reliability` — `pearson`, `spearman` (average-rank tie-corrected), `cronbach_alpha`, and `icc(_, IccForm::{Icc2_1, Icc3_1})` (Shrout-Fleiss 1979 two-way ANOVA; absolute-agreement + consistency). All return `Option<f64>` (`None` on degenerate input — no panics/NaN, per the no-unwrap guideline). Formula correctness pinned to reference values: Shrout-Fleiss worked example ICC(2,1)=0.290 / ICC(3,1)=0.715 (matches R `psych::ICC` / `pingouin`), plus Pearson/Spearman/Cronbach textbook checks. Point estimates ONLY — significance calibration stays `jc::jirak`'s job under I-NOISE-FLOOR-JIRAK (weak dependence, not IID Berry-Esseen).
+- **Not consolidated yet (follow-up):** the two existing hand-rolled `spearman_rho` copies (probe_p1, stockfish-rs) can now migrate to `jc::reliability::spearman`; `thinking-engine/src/cronbach.rs` (excluded crate) is separate prior art. Left as a TECH_DEBT-style follow-up, not forced in this plateau.
+- Unblocks the measurement half of P4 (D-TRI-2) and P5 (D-TRI-4/5); the mint-gated tenant half stays blocked on the P2 operator decisions (Q1–Q5).
+
 ## 2026-07-17 — E-RUNG-ASCENT-WIRED-1 — the rung ascent loop is now WIRED in the shader driver (D-TRI-6, plateau P3); RungLevel deduped to the contract; the correctness gate was an axis mismatch, not the ladder
 
 **Status:** SHIPPED (plateau P3, PR pending). Executes the §3a wiring E-MASLOW-PYRAMID-OF-COGNITION-1 named as "the missing wiring". Four deliverables, all green.

crates/jc/src/lib.rs

@@ -30,18 +30,24 @@
 //!
 //! Run: `cargo run --manifest-path crates/jc/Cargo.toml --example prove_it`
 
-pub mod substrate;
-pub mod weyl;
-pub mod jirak;
-pub mod pearl;
 pub mod cartan;
-pub mod precond;
-pub mod koestenberger;
 pub mod dueker_zoubouloglou;
 pub mod ewa_sandwich;
 pub mod ewa_sandwich_3d;
-pub mod pflug;
 pub mod hambly_lyons;
+pub mod jirak;
+pub mod koestenberger;
+pub mod pearl;
+pub mod pflug;
+pub mod precond;
+pub mod substrate;
+pub mod weyl;
+
+// Reliability & validity metric battery (Pearson / Spearman / Cronbach α / ICC).
+// NOT a pillar — a consolidated toolkit the D-TRI-2/4/5 agreement gates call.
+// Point estimates only; significance calibration is `jirak`'s job
+// (I-NOISE-FLOOR-JIRAK). See `src/reliability.rs`.
+pub mod reliability;
 
 // PROBE-SIG-CHECKSUM — depth-2 truncated signature as a replayable
 // trajectory digest (H.268 probe wave, grades E-WH-TWO-SIDES-SIG-CHECKSUM-1
@@ -92,26 +98,61 @@ impl PillarResult {
         } else {
             "✗ FAIL"
         };
-        println!("  {status}  measured={:.6}  predicted={:.6}  ({} ms)",
-            self.measured, self.predicted, self.runtime_ms);
+        println!(
+            "  {status}  measured={:.6}  predicted={:.6}  ({} ms)",
+            self.measured, self.predicted, self.runtime_ms
+        );
         println!("  {}", self.detail);
     }
 }
 
 pub fn run_all_pillars() -> Vec<PillarResult> {
     let pillars: Vec<(&str, fn() -> PillarResult)> = vec![
-        ("E-SUBSTRATE-1: bundle associativity @ d=10000", substrate::prove),
-        ("Cartan-Kuranishi: role_keys ≡ Cartan characters", cartan::prove),
+        (
+            "E-SUBSTRATE-1: bundle associativity @ d=10000",
+            substrate::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Cartan-Kuranishi: role_keys ≡ Cartan characters",
+            cartan::prove,
+        ),
         ("φ-Weyl: 144-verb collocation coverage", weyl::prove),
-        ("γ+φ preconditioner: prolongation step reduction", precond::prove),
-        ("Jirak Berry-Esseen: weak-dep noise floor @ d=16384", jirak::prove),
-        ("Pearl 2³ mask-accuracy: three-plane vs bundled @ d=16384", pearl::prove),
-        ("Köstenberger-Stark: inductive mean on Hadamard 2×2 SPD", koestenberger::prove),
-        ("Düker-Zoubouloglou: Hilbert-space CLT for AR(1) in ℝ^16384", dueker_zoubouloglou::prove),
-        ("EWA-Sandwich: Σ-push-forward along multi-hop edge paths", ewa_sandwich::prove),
-        ("EWA-Sandwich 3D: Σ-push-forward on symmetric 3×3 SPD covariances", ewa_sandwich_3d::prove),
-        ("Pflug-Pichler: nested-distance Lipschitz on Sigma DN-trees", pflug::prove),
-        ("Hambly-Lyons: signature uniqueness on tree-quotient", hambly_lyons::prove),
+        (
+            "γ+φ preconditioner: prolongation step reduction",
+            precond::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Jirak Berry-Esseen: weak-dep noise floor @ d=16384",
+            jirak::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Pearl 2³ mask-accuracy: three-plane vs bundled @ d=16384",
+            pearl::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Köstenberger-Stark: inductive mean on Hadamard 2×2 SPD",
+            koestenberger::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Düker-Zoubouloglou: Hilbert-space CLT for AR(1) in ℝ^16384",
+            dueker_zoubouloglou::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "EWA-Sandwich: Σ-push-forward along multi-hop edge paths",
+            ewa_sandwich::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "EWA-Sandwich 3D: Σ-push-forward on symmetric 3×3 SPD covariances",
+            ewa_sandwich_3d::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Pflug-Pichler: nested-distance Lipschitz on Sigma DN-trees",
+            pflug::prove,
+        ),
+        (
+            "Hambly-Lyons: signature uniqueness on tree-quotient",
+            hambly_lyons::prove,
+        ),
     ];
 
     let total = pillars.len();